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Final version of the SSC recommendation letter sent to NSF
concerning prioritization of the projects from the SSC meeting Nov. 30-Dec.1, 1995.
(Jackie M. Grebmeier, Chair)

January 12, 1996

Dr. Mike Ledbetter
ARCSS Program Director/OPP
National Science Foundation
4201 Wilson Blvd
Arlington, VA 22230

Dr. Larry Clark
Ocean Sciences Division
National Science Foundation
4201 Wilson Blvd
Arlington, VA 22230

Dear Mike and Larry,

    During the OAII Science Steering Committee meeting held in Seattle, WA, 30 November-1 December, 1995, a variety of items were discussed related to the ARCSS OAII program. This letter summarizes the major items and issues discussed at that meeting and conveys our advice and guidance concerning research priorities for the OAII element of ARCSS.

ITEM

1. OAII SCIENCE PRIORITIES

    First Priority - The OAII SSC confirms its support of the SHEBA program as the number one science priority within the OAII 5 year plan. However, after extensive discussion concerning revision of the draft science plan and direction of the SHEBA program, we agreed to draft a letter to the SHEBA SWG recommending a re-evaluation of the scope of SHEBA together with suggesting how to move the science planning forward (see more detail in the SHEBA SWG section below). This decision was based on the apparent delay in development of an announcement of opportunity for the Phase II field program of SHEBA and the need for the SHEBA field program to develop within the fiscal restraints of the current level-funding projections for the OAII program. In addition, a limited amount of funds should be made available for supporting smaller, disciplinary, ARCSS-related projects over the next 5 years.

    Second Priority - The SSC discussed the final draft of the Shelf-Basin Interactions (SBI) report from the Townsend, TN workshop last March and supports moving forward on this initiative through NSF support of a science planning workshop to be held in mid-1996. The SBI will investigate biogeochemical processes over the Arctic Ocean outer shelf and slope regions related to the transformation and exchange of materials between the shelf and open ocean. The SSC recommends the following activities for the SBI: 1) a 1996 science planning workshop, 2) limited funding of relevant SBI spin-up biogeochemical research during the 1997/98 SHEBA field program, together with modeling and data synthesis projects, and 3) increased science program development/field program support beginning in mid-1998. Full program development for the SBI will be discussed during the proposed science planning workshop in 1996.

    Third Priority - The proposed 1998 Canadian Basin study, to be organized on the Canadian icebreaker Louis St.-Laurent in collaboration with Canadian scientists, was considered worthy of further discussion, especially as this program might interface with the SBI. The SSC discussed the possibility of a biogeochemical program on the Louis St.-Laurent, similar to one for the SHEBA ice camp (ship), that would provide information on important open Arctic Ocean boundary conditions for the shelf-basin initiative.

    Fourth Priority - The RASE program could provide the landward/inner shelf boundary data as an input function for the SBI. Since this program is in the development stage, further discussions are necessary with RASE proponents, possibly at the proposed SBI science planning workshop.

    Fifth Priority - The U.S. component of the NOW program in the Canadian Arctic was given lowest priority based on the SSC conclusion that the NOW plan outlined in the documents provided to the SSC does not constitute high priority, ARCSS-relevant science. Moreover, the NOW proposals were submitted without an open announcement of opportunity to the wider scientific community. Although polynyas may respond to global change, it is not clear that they are important drivers of global change, or appropriate analogs to a changed arctic marine environment. The delay in SHEBA funding in FY96 has provided additional funds for science support. Even if individual NOW proposals rate highly in peer review a fully-funded NOW program would conflict with higher-priority OAII initiatives during FY97 and FY98. The SSC recommends that the leadership of the U.S. NOW initiative modify their planning process in a manner consistent with the ARCSS OAII policy of community-wide Program Announcements, if they wish to compete for funding of a large, focused, multi-investigator ARCSS project. We urge that any current consideration of NOW funding be limited to only that science clearly relevant to ARCSS priorities and necessary to fill the gaps of the proposed Canadian-led NOW program in 1996. The SSC stands ready to consider a proposal by NOW leadership for an ARCSS announcement of opportunity to participate in a possible NOW-initiative USCG cruise in 1997, similar to that done for the U.S.-Canadian Arctic Ocean Section. The core logistical funds might be committed in FY96 if excess funds become available due to a delay in initiating Phase II of SHEBA. Such a proposal would necessarily be reviewed in the context of other existing and proposed OAII initiatives.

2. SHEBA SWG

    The OAII SSC confirms SHEBA is the highest priority for OAII funding, but it has become evident through discussions that SHEBA has grown so large in scope and budget that some tightening of the program is essential. The primary goal of the letter to the SHEBA SWG, which you have already received, is to charge the SHEBA SWG group to find a way to move the SHEBA science plan forward within the fiscal limitations of essentially level funding for ARCSS OAII and to assign priority based on the readiness of the elements of SHEBA. The SSC recommends that the SHEBA SWG clarify and focus the program, and provide a more effective prioritization of its elements, particularly in the context of contributions made by collaborating programs (including ARM and FIRE).

3. INITIATIVE PROCESS

    Another issue, highlighted by submission of the U.S. NOW program, concerns the value of the initiative process in ARCSS with the limited (and projected level) funding in the ARCSS OAII program. Many scientists have invested time and NSF money in an initiative process to develop the SHEBA program and a similar investment is being made now with the SBI. The 2-3 yr lead time to get these projects off the ground leaves the door open for opportunistic, ad hoc, multi-investigator programs to deplete the funding resource with little involvement by the general community in the planning process (e.g, NOW). Although NSF encourages the initiative process, including research and science planning workshops, it has also been willing to entertain large, multi-investigator proposals that are somehow "ARCSS-related", which provides NSF a safety net when approved program time lines are delayed. If NSF is willing to fund multi-million dollar programs without a formal announcement of opportunity, then the cost/benefit of the initiative process, meant to identify the most important topics for study within the context of ARCSS, is brought into question. Perhaps the new bi-annual deadline for OPP/ARCSS proposals should be wide open for all types of proposals. The SSC recommends that NSF clearly define the proposal submission process, e.g., disciplinary, 1-5 PI programs (multiple $100K) would be acceptable as unsolicited proposals; however, if the proposals relate to a systems-approach, multi-investigator, multi-million dollar program, then an announcement of opportunity is required. Further discussion within NSF, the OAII SSC and the general scientific community are warranted.

4. OAII SSC MEMBERSHIP

    The following people were nominated and approved by the SSC, and are recommended for new membership on the OAII SSC:

• Dr. David Battisti, University of Washington; global and arctic climate modeling
• Dr. Dan Lubin; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD; cloud radiation
• Dr. Donald Perovich, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory; sea-ice physics
• Dr. Bert Semtner, Monterey Naval Postgraduate School; ice-ocean numerical modeling
• Dr. Thomas Weingartner, University of Alaska Fairbanks; physical oceanography, Arctic shelf processes.

    Two additional people are being sought to provide expertise in higher trophic levels and human dimension components. Possible nominations are Dr. Malcolm Ramsay, an Arctic marine mammal specialist. Dr. Ramsay is a Canadian, thus the SSC thought he would also bring input on Canadian Arctic science direction for potential collaboration; another alternative is Dr. Susan Hills, a marine mammals specialist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. For the human dimension component, possible candidates are Dr. John Middaugh, a physician in Alaska, and Dr. Susan Kaplan, an archaeologist specializing in past human usage of marine systems.

Dr. Lou Codispoti, Old Dominion University, a specialist in chemical oceanography, was approved to take over the OAII SMO, and will have ex-officio status on the OAII SSC. Dr. Jackie Grebmeier, University of Tennessee, was approved as chair of the OAII SCC.

5. ARCSS ALL PI MEETING

    An OAII evening meeting is proposed for the upcoming ARCSS ALL PI meeting May 1-3, 1996. This evening session will allow all OAII PI's to meet and discuss the direction of the ARCSS OAII program, upcoming initiatives, and future directions for research. This meeting will also provide a forum to discuss revising the OAII terms of reference for the SSC and updating the OAII science plan. The group needs to discuss how the OAII projects will be integrated into models of global change, particularly in the context of ARCSS evolving towards thematic proposals/programs, requiring a need for crosstalk and fertilization between programs. Another item for discussion is how to merge the key issues driving ARCSS science within the Arctic Natural Science Program, with the fiscal reality of current funding limitations. A working dinner of the OAII SSC is proposed during this meeting.

6. ITEMS FOR SSC ACTION

a. Revise OAII Terms of Reference
b. Update OAII Science Plan, including 5 yr. long range plan and international program interactions
c. Develop policy for OAII PI data submission to ARCSS data center
d. Finalize OAII SSC new membership
e. Organize spring 1997 OAII PI meeting

    If you have any questions related to this letter, please contact me at 423-974-2592 or email: jgreb@utkux.utk.edu.

Best regards,
Jackie M. Grebmeier, Chair
ARCSS/OAII SSC